Intambara hagati ya Iran na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika ntikiri inkuru y’amasasu n’ibitero gusa, yahindutse inkubi y’ umuyaga uri kujegeza ibihugu byose by’’isi. Mu byumweru bike gusa, ibyatangiye ari ibitero n’ukwihimura byahindutse ikibazo gikora ku biciro by’ ibicanwa, ibiribwa, ubucuruzi, ndetse n’ amafaranga ari mu mifuka yabantu ku giti cyabo.

Urutirigongo ry’ iki kibazo ni peteroli. Ibiciro byayo byazamutse cyane, biva hafi kuri $70 mbere y’intambara bigera hejuru ya $113 ku isoko mpuzamahanga, aho amakuru avuga ko byazamutse hejuru ya 50% ku masoko amwe namwe. Impamvu nyamukuru ni uko inzira y’ingenzi ya peteroli ku isi, yitwa Strait of Hormuz, inyuramo hafi 20% bya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi, yagiye ihungabana. Iyo nzira iyo ihungabanye, isi yose ihita ibihomberamo.

Ibitangazamakuru bikomeye ku isi byatangiye gutabaza cyane. Nk’uko Reuters ibitangaza, ibihombo bya peteroli ku isoko bishobora kugera ku tugunguru miliyoni 7 kugeza kuri 10 ku munsi, ibintu bishobora guhungabanya cyane ubukungu bw’isi. Naho The Guardian ivuga ko iki kibazo gishobora kugereranywa n’icy’ibibazo bya peteroli byo mu myaka ya 1970, aho abahanga mu by’ingufu bavuga ko ari kimwe mu byahungabanya ubukungu bw’isi cyaba kibayeho mu mateka ya vuba.

Ingaruka zatangiye kugaragara byihuse. Amasoko y’imari aranyeganyega—nko mu Buyapani, isoko rya Nikkei ryagabanutseho 3.5%, mu gihe muri Koreya y’Epfo KOSPI yagabanutse hafi 6% kubera ubwoba bw’abashoramari. Ikindi kandi, amafaranga y’ibihugu bimwe ari guhungabana cyane, nk’aho mu Buhinde ifaranga ryageze ku rwego rwo hasi rutigeze rubaho, bitewe n’uko abashoramari barimo gukuramo miliyali z’ amafaranga yabo ku bwinshi. Iyo ibi bibaye, ubucuruzi burahungabana, kandi akazi kakajya mu kaga.

Ku bucuruzi busanzwe, ingaruka ni urucabana. Kuzamuka kw’ibiciro bya lisansi bituma ubwikorezi buhenda, ibiribwa bigahenda, ndetse n’ibikorwa by’inganda bikagorana. Hari ibigo bimwe bitangiye kugabanya ibikorwa, mu gihe ibindi biri kongera ibiciro kugira ngo bikomeze kubaho. Nk’uko byatangajwe na The Guardian, hari aho abantu batangiye kugabanya amasaha y’akazi ndetse n’ibiryo bihenze bikavanwa ku rutonde rw’ibigurishwa.

Abahanga mu bukungu nabo bafite impungenge zikomeye. Niba ibiciro bya peteroli bikomeza kuba hejuru ya $100, ubukungu bw’isi bushobora kudindira mu gihe ibiciro by’ibintu bikomeza kuzamuka, bigatera ikibazo gikomeye cy’ubukungu(Inflation). Ikigega mpuzamahanga cy’imari (IMF) cyaburiye ko ibi bishobora kuzamura ibiciro ku isi no kugabanya umuvuduko w’ubukungu.

Muri macye, iyi ntambara ntiri gusenya aho irwanirwa gusa, iri no kuzamura igiciro cy’ubuzima ku isi yose. Kuva kuri lisansi kugera ku masoko y’ibiribwa, ku ngendo z’indege kugera no ku bucuruzi buto, igitutu kiriyongera buri munsi. Iyi ntambara nikomeza, isi ishobora kwisanga itari mu ntambara gusa, ahubwo iri no mu bihe bikomeye by’ubukungu bukora kuri buri muntu wese.

Uyu munsi, urugamba ntiruri gusa mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati. Ruri mu masoko y’imari, mu myanzuro ifatwa mu bucuruzi, no mu buzima bwa buri munsi bw’abantu barimo guhangana n’izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Journalist NDUWE SUGIRA Alain Bertin